ASSESSMENT OF THE PROBABILITY OF BANKRUPTCY OF PJSC LUKOIL

: the article describes bankruptcy issues and information on conducting an assessment of the probability of assessing the bankruptcy of companies. Based on the data from the accounting statements of the oil and gas company PJSC Lukoil, the probability of bankruptcy of the company was assessed using four bankruptcy forecasting models. The article presents the conclusions of the analysis, evaluates the success of the introduction of the financial policy of the company.

PJSC Lukoil is one of the leading producers of petroleum products in Russia, actively engaged in the extraction, production and sale of oil, gas and related products.
In recent years, the company has been actively strengthening its positions in both domestic and foreign energy markets.The company is working to improve its mining technologies and address environmental issues.
Despite volatile market conditions, Lukoil maintains large volumes and high levels of oil production and exports.Project development continues both in Russia and abroad, albeit in a limited format.
The efficiency of PJSC Lukoil's operations has been affected by various macroeconomic and microeconomic reasons, in particular, the epidemiological situation in 2020 and political sanctions in 2022.
Taking into account the above factors, the relevance of conducting an assessment of the probability of bankruptcy of the enterprise becomes relevant.To illustrate the financial stability of PJSC Lukoil, the probability of bankruptcy of the company is conducted using four forecasting models to maximize the accuracy of the study.Also, this analysis will help to understand how successfully the company has coped with the difficulties encountered in various periods of its operations in recent years, as well as to assess its current financial stability.Content is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license (CC-BY 4.0) Estimation of bankruptcy probability using Chesser's model [2].This model was elaborated by British scientist D. Chesser in 1974.It was originally created to assess the creditworthiness of borrowers in banks.Since its main purpose is to assess the risks of financial instability, when analyzing companies for the probability of bankruptcy, it takes into account many metrics such as liquidity, financial stability and others.Its main feature and advantage is the efficiency of assessment and ease of calculation.By utilizing the Chesser`s model, one can assess the company's financial status based on the likelihood of bankruptcy.Table 2 contains the relevant benchmarks.Critical financial position of the company 0,6 < P < 0,8 Company at risk of bankruptcy 0,4 < Р < 0,6 Satisfactory financial condition of the company 0,2 < Р < 0,4 The company's financial condition is good 0 < Р < 0,4 The company's financial condition is exellent Thus, the company's position is improving year by year.There is an increase in the amount of P, which indicates the strengthening of the financial position.In 2020 the paying capacity of the company was near bankruptcy, but the P 2022 shows that the financial position of PJSC Lukoil is rather good.

Estimation of bankruptcy probability using of Altman's five-factor model [3]
The model was developed by American economist E. Altman in 1968.This model is widely used to assess the probability of bankruptcy of companies, as the author proposed different versions of the formula for organizations from different industries, taking into account their characteristics.Altman's model takes into account five key financial indicators of the company.To evaluate the results of the calculations, we present the reference values in Table 4.To estimate the results of the calculations, the reference values are presented in Table 6.
Estimation of bankruptcy probability using of Zaitseva`s model [5] This  Taking into account the results of the above analysis, we can conclude that PJSC Lukoil experienced acute financial difficulties in 2020.However, the positive dynamics of indicators is clearly visible, and the risk of the probability of bankruptcy of the company has significantly reduced over the selected period of time.The company maintains a stable position in the oil and gas industry, constantly increasing the scale and volume of production.By applying an effective management strategy, PJSC Lukoil is on the way to achieving its goals.
To conduct an additional analysis of the strength of the company's financial position, let's analyze the financial and economic characteristics of PJSC Lukoil for the period 2020-2022 years.Then, the company's liquidity indicators is analyzed in Table 9.Throughout the period under review, the current liquidity ratio is below the regulatory value.By the end of the period under review, it is still below the standard value, and is 1.003, but there is a positive trend.It grew by 0.154 compared to the previous year.
model of bankruptcy forecasting was proposed by professor O. P. Zaitseva in 1998.It is based on factor analysis and static methods.It takes into account the risks and factors affecting the financial condition of the company.

Table 2
Reference values for estimation of indicators based on Chesser`s model calculations

Table 4
Reference values for estimation of indicators based on Altman's five-factor modelBasing on the calculations outlined in Table3, the same pattern can be noted in Estimation of bankruptcy probability using Belikov-Davydova model[4].This model was proposed by A. Y. Belikov in 1998, I was one of the first domestic models.The uniqueness of this model is that it takes into account socio-political, financial and economic factors.This makes the model universal.
the Altman five-factor model calculations as in the Chesser model: the financial position of PJSC Lukoil in 2020 was in the zone of financial risks, while in 2022 financial stability took hold, demonstrating a positive trend.Content is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license (CC-BY 4.0)

Table 7
ИздательскийConcluding from the calculations presented in Table7, it can be seen that К fact 2022 < К standard 2022 , which indicates a low probability of bankruptcy of the enterprise.In 2021 К fact 2021 < К standard 2021 , which indicates a high probability of bankruptcy.

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The company has very good indicators.Of course, this was influenced by the economic situation in the world due to the epidemiological situation.The net profit is also growing from year to year.Since 2020, it has grown by 592,560,966 thousand.RUB, and from 2021 to 2022 by 154,411,690 thousand rubles, which is a good trend.