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List of publications on a keyword: «рынок труда РФ»

  • The labor market as the foundation of the new economic ecosystem of the Russian Federation: an empirical assessment of the transformation cycle

    Book Chapter
    Principles of building a new ecosystem: social, economic and legal aspects
    Author:
    Olga I. Khudiakova
    Work direction:
    Глава 8
    Abstract:
    The study, covering the period from 2010 to 2025, analyzes the transformation of the Russian labor market in the context of four fundamental shifts (recovery from the global crisis, sanctions adaptation, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the transition to technological sovereignty). Using a comprehensive econometric toolkit (testing time series for stationarity, correlation and cointegration analysis, principal component analysis, and autoregressive models), the study establishes that the labor market has ceased to serve as a passive shock absorber during crises and has become a core load-bearing element of the new economic ecosystem. Systemic contradictions are identified: an anomalous relationship between key rate increases and nominal wage growth, rising structural unemployment due to a mismatch between worker qualifications and employer demands, an acute shortage of engineers, and job creation predominantly in traditional heavy industry, which runs counter to environmental objectives. Principal component analysis reveals that 70% of the system's variability is captured by a single latent factor (employment, wages, and the key rate); a pro-cyclical pattern of monetary policy is identified. A significant negative correlation is found between environmental pressure and unemployment. An autoregressive model incorporating the macroeconomic overheating index, environmental factors, and innovation is identified as optimal. The key driver of qualitative growth is the rate of human capital renewal rather than its absolute volume. Institutional conditions for the transition to intensive labor resource management are formulated.
    Keywords:
    human capital, Russian labor market, structural transformation of the economy, frictional unemployment, shortage of engineering personnel, time series econometrics, principal component analysis, autoregressive models, macroeconomic overheating, key interest rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation
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