Development of the Russian socio-economic system: challenges and prospects
- Author:
- Olga I. Khudiakova
- Work direction:
- Глава 5
- Abstract:
- The chapter presents a comprehensive econometric analysis of the factors determining the dynamics of export revenues of Russia's key energy commodities – oil, gas, and coal – amid global volatility and geopolitical transformation. Based on Rosstat data over the past 25 years, regression models are constructed to quantify the contribution of macroeconomic factors (GDP, production, energy prices, exchange rate) and geopolitical risks. Comparative analysis using standardized coefficients and delta coefficients revealed fundamental differences in the revenue structure and vulnerability of the sectors: oil and gas exports are characterized by extreme dependence on global price conditions, while the coal sector demonstrates a more complex structure where the exchange rate and sanctions pressure play a dominant role. Key adaptation mechanisms of Russian foreign trade are identified: price adaptation, geographical reorientation of exports, and the use of the national currency devaluation effect.
- Keywords:
- econometric modeling, fuel and energy complex, oil, exchange rate, sanctions pressure, regression analysis, correlation analysis, export revenue, natural gas, coal, and adaptation mechanisms